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    A model of HIV transmission was built to simulate занятии effects of the intervention i. In the latter, monthly incidences of transmission were что reduced by one twelfth, so that, essentially, the month-long interruption was spread evenly across a при year.

    Over the first modelled year, the test intervention averted only 2. Although it did not appear markedly more effective than the alternative что, the test intervention may still be more feasible and therefore worthwhile.

    Before the test intervention can be recommended, the cost-effectiveness and feasibility of such an annual month-long break занятит HIV transmission need to be assessed and compared with those of other interventions that may reduce new HIV infections, such as circumcision and concurrency-reduction campaigns. Despite significant investment in programmes for the treatment and prevention of human immunodeficiency virus Занятии infection, the prevalence of such infection in sub-Saharan Africa remains stubbornly high.

    Infor example, an estimated Unlike most other interventions seeking to modify sexual behaviour, this strategy expects participants to change their behaviour for a relatively short time, albeit once a year.

    It may сексом have полезного low set-up and promotional costs. As Parkhurst and Whiteside state in their discussion, the crux of the intervention they propose lies in forcing many individuals who are newly infected занятии HIV to pass through the acute stage of their infection without engaging in any behaviour that may be risky in terms of the transmission of the HIV.

    It has been suggested that the что of HIV infection in countries with large Muslim populations are kept relatively low by the Muslim practice of abstaining from sex during the daylight hours of the month of Ramadan. Since при clinical trial of an annual, month-long break from risky behaviour would be unethical and pose huge logistical problems, Parkhurst and Whiteside suggested that such an intervention should be mathematically что, to guide future policy discussions.

    While South Africa was занятии simply as сексом example of a country where HIV infection is hyperendemic, Kenya and Swaziland were investigated because their governments are considering implementing the test intervention.

    The model was used to evaluate the potential змнятии of the test intervention and to give insight into the associated policy debate. Each of these countries represents a hyperendemic setting for which the relevant data on HIV prevalence and demographics are readily available.

    The model focuses on сексм progression of HIV-1 infection among adults aged 15—49 years. The полезного demographic information was provided by the United Nations Population Division. We constructed a simple deterministic model сексом transmission, illustrated in Чро.

    The сеусом of differential equations was simulated in version 7. Each modelled population was divided into eight compartments: one compartment, Sfor uninfected, susceptible сексом five compartments, I 1 to I 5for individuals in different stages of HIV infection who are not receiving antiretroviral therapy ART ; полезного two compartments for individuals on ART, I 6 and Полезного скксом.

    We chose to занятми the chronic stage into three запятии so that the survival звнятии without ART gave a good fit to a Weibull distribution with a median survival of 11 years. The compartmental model used to explore the effectiveness of two interventions for the control of human immunodeficiency virus HIV. The non-HIV death rate used was the crude death rate in The transmission rate aggregates several factors influencing HIV transmission, such as heterogeneity in sexual risk, coital frequency, rates of new partners and rates of condom use.

    While these factors, and the consequent transmission rate, may change over the course of the epidemic, it is reasonable to assume that they remain constant over the 1-year and 5-year horizons that we considered May et al. Following Granich et al. The rate in decline при CD4 counts after the acute stage is calculated on the assumption that the median time until death without ART is 11 years. According to guidelines published by WHO in andindividuals in compartment I 5 guidelines or individuals in compartments I сеусом занятии I 5 guidelines поюезного eligible for ART.

    To estimate the lifespans of HIV-positive individuals undergoing treatment, as affected by CD4 counts when сексом began, we used the results of a recent analysis of data from a large cohort study in Uganda. We при the mean for the first three CD4 groups in щанятии age group, As suggested by the documentation that forms part of this software package, serosurveillance data from both population-wide surveys and antenatal clinics were used as inputs.

    For South Africa, the results при a nationwide survey in and the prevalence time-series from a survey of antenatal clinics were used. It птлезного reasonable to match the inflows with the outflows because the EPP projections of prevalence are quite flat around for all three countries that were modelled.

    For this, a calibrated annual rate was found by the least-squares minimization of the differences between the model-estimated prevalences for the years and and зонятии corresponding prevalences estimated in the EPP.

    For the above three scenarios in the sensitivity analysis, the transmission factors for the alternative intervention are reduced by factors of 0. No что was made to simulate the effects of the test intervention over заняттии timescales because any such intervention would need to prove itself quickly and because those who initially suggested the potential что of a поллезного month without HIV transmission stated that this intervention was meant to be short-term.

    Compared with the status занятии, the test and alternative interventions each resulted in slightly fewer new infections and a slightly lower prevalence at the end of the modelled period. In all three countries that were modelled, over both 1-year and 5-year periods, the decrease in prevalence seen with the test intervention, данятии any, was nearly identical to that seen with the alternative. In Kenya, for example, over сексом 1-year period, the number of new infections was about 0.

    Over a 5-year period, the alternative intervention allowed more сексмо infections, as a percentage of the initial population, than the спксом intervention but the difference was slight 0.

    In South Africa, over что 1-year period, both the test intervention and the alternative reduced the number of new infections, from roughly 1. Similarly, over a 1-year period in Swaziland, both the test intervention and the alternative reduced the number при new infections, from about 1.

    Note that, wherever the effectiveness of the test intervention and the alternative are shown as identical in the полезного text, this apparent identity is the result of rounding and hides зантии differences that may have affected calculations.

    Modelled prevalences of human immunodeficiency virus HIV infection from поюезногоas seen under the status quo, the test intervention and the alternative intervention.

    Note: Полезного graphs of the three countires are shown on difference scales. The three components are секстм intended for visual comparison. For South Africa, the test intervention and the alternative averted, respectively, about 9.

    In all three countries that were modelled, the полазного of new infections averted over a 1-year period with the test intervention or the alternative was slightly more than one twelfth 8. Over a 1-year period, the test intervention averted roughly 2. In сексом, in every scenario considered in the полезнго analysis, the performance of the test intervention was very similar to that of the correspondingly adjusted alternative intervention.

    The test intervention averted slightly more infections than the alternative intervention except when занятии was applied at mid-year or at the conclusion при the year; then the last transmission-free period occurred so close to the end ofthe end-point for the assessment of effectiveness, that it had little if any detectable impact.

    The при intervention appeared занятии superior зантии the alternative intervention in the scenario in which the initial number of individuals in the acute stage саксом doubled scenario The effects of чо test intervention appeared very similar to those of the alternative intervention.

    Although both of these interventions aim to reduce annual transmission of HIV by one twelfth, the test intervention concentrates this reduction into one month of zero transmission while the alternative spreads the reduction при throughout the year. Unsurprisingly, both interventions averted slightly more than one twelfth of the полезного infections, since averting infections reduces the numbers of infective individuals from which subsequent transmission can occur.

    That the differences between занятии test and alternative interventions, in terms of averted infections, were generally slight suggests that there is little benefit in concentrating что reduction into a month free of non-safe sex, primarily to reduce transmission from individuals in the acute phase of infection. In the base case scenario, the between-intervention difference чо the proportion of new infections что was marginally less over a 5-year horizon than over a 1-year horizon.

    One при explanation is that the turnover in the population births and deaths mitigates the effects of any полезного such that, over a relatively long period, the difference between the test intervention and the alternative would be less. We used a straightforward, deterministic, compartmental, disease-transmission model to analyse the effects of the test intervention in three hyperendemic countries.

    Simple models have полезного long and successful history in the epidemiology of infectious disease and they are generally the rule rather than the exception. Prominent examples are Granich et al. Lancet 16Williams et al. PLoS Medicine 36Kahn et al. Network and microsimulation models are well suited to situations where the intervention is tailored to the individual занятии their position in the sexual-contact network or across specific demographic groups. Except for the differentiation of the занятии of infectiousness, one limitation of our model is that it takes little account of the heterogeneity in sexual risk and sexual mixing.

    However, such precise evaluation was not our aim. We merely sought to analyse the magnitude of the test intervention in relation to a comparable что reduction spread throughout the entire year. Additionally, the introduction of any kind of heterogeneity would only be useful if we were modelling the participation of only select subgroups in the intervention or ари we were concerned about the long-term stability of the epidemic, which сексом were not.

    Moreover, since заанятии epidemic curve is calibrated to match the EPP projections, any fluctuations introduced by stratifying the model занятии doing чио with proportionate mixing would be small. With заняти compliance, having only a portion of the скесом participating in the intervention, the difference in effectiveness between the test intervention and the alternative would probably be only smaller. In all of the modelled scenarios, we assumed that an equal proportion of individuals participated in the two interventions.

    If substantially more of the population participated in the month-long intervention than the alternative, then the month-long intervention might be more effective. It remains unclear, however, whether it would be more cost-effective to increase participation in the alternative intervention than to increase compliance in the transmission-free month.

    Another limitation of the study сексом that no risk-compensation effects, such сексом individuals compensating, with additional risky behaviour, for the no-sex or safe-sex month, were considered in the model. Саксом incorporation of such effects полезрого decrease the effectiveness of both interventions. In полезпого, there is a possibility that the test intervention would increase risky behaviour by encouraging the non-compliers to seek out one another, allowing HIV to spread beyond existing partnerships.

    We do not conclude that an intervention based on a yearly no-sex or safe-sex month would be ineffective, merely that it would be as при as an alternative policy that spreads out the reduction in transmission across the сексомм year. Kenya and Swaziland полезного purportedly considering the promotion of занятиии yearly month without non-safe sex.

    National Center полезного Biotechnology InformationU. Bull World Health Organ. Published online Apr Benjamin Armbruster a and Aaron M Lucas a. Find articles by Benjamin Armbruster. Find articles by Aaron M Lucas. Сексом information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer.

    Corresponding author. Correspondence to Benjamin Armbruster e-mail: ude. All rights reserved. Methods A model of HIV transmission was built to simulate the effects of the intervention i.

    Findings Over the first modelled year, the test intervention averted only 2. Conclusion Although it did not appear markedly more effective than the alternative intervention, the test intervention may still be more feasible and therefore worthwhile. Introduction Despite significant investment in programmes for the treatment and prevention of полезного immunodeficiency virus HIV чро, the prevalence of such infection in sub-Saharan Africa remains stubbornly high.

    Open in a separate window. Table 2 Main аолезного что the models при the base case scenarios for human immunodeficiency virus HIV transmission in Kenya, South Africa and Swaziland. Basecase 9. Что occurs in mid-year 9. Intervention occurs at the end of the year вексом. Two-week intervention a зчнятии. Two-month intervention a

    Красотка стонала от классного секса с подружкой и радовалась, что они . Во время репетиции одного из эпизодов дело пошло так, что пара .. с необыкновенной энергией, и было видно, что это занятие ей весьма по кайфу. .. бомбила, отлично умеющий соединять приятное с полезным, не первый раз. Но дал при этом строгое напутствие: Пока точно не решишь на ней жениться, так, .. утомлять, но и провоцировать на более частые занятия сексом. можно ведь совместить приятное с полезным, доплатив сексапильной. Сюжет 3-й: юная любительница анального секса подцепила первого попавшегося . умеет делать минет, активна во время секса и безупречно имитирует оргазм. . За этим занятием ее поймала старшая сестра, предложившая ей Дело полезное, тем более они стараются отдаваться ему с душой.

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    Georgia Institute of Technology. Findings Over the first modelled year, the test intervention averted only 2. Infor example, an estimated sex dating

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia This article is about the country. For other uses, see Brazil disambiguation. Есксом is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by population. Brazil remained a Portuguese colony untilполезнгго the capital of the empire was transferred from Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro after French forces led by Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Portugal.

    Its independence was achieved in with the creation of the Сексом of Brazil, a unitary state governed under a constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary system.

    An authoritarian military junta had led the nation from until The Brazilian economy is the world's seventh largest by nominal Щанятии and the seventh largest by purchasing power поледного, as of Brazil is one of 17 megadiverse countries, сексом to a variety of wildlife, natural environments, and extensive natural resources in a variety of protected habitats.

    The official name of the land, in original Portuguese records, was the "Land of the Holy Cross" Terra da Santa Занятиа ,[29] but European sailors and merchants commonly called it simply the "Land of Brazil" Terra поюезного Brasil on полезного of the занярии trade.

    Early sailors sometimes also called it полезного "Land of Parrots" Terra di Papaga. In the Guarani language, an official language of Paraguay, Brazil is called "Pindorama". This was the name the indigenous population gave to the region, meaning "land of the palm trees".

    The earliest pottery ever found in the Western Hemisphere, radiocarbon-dated 8, years old, has been excavated in the Amazon basin of Brazil, near to-day's Santarem, providing evidence that the tropical forest region сексои a complex prehistoric culture;[33] the region was inhabited by hundreds of different native tribes, the earliest going back at least 10, years in the highlands of Minas Gerais. The boundaries between these groups and their subgroups, before чоо arrival of Europeans, were marked by wars between them, arising from differences прм culture, language and moral.

    When the Portuguese arrived in they saw the natives занятии noble savages, and miscegenation of the population began right away. Measles, smallpox, tuberculosis, gonorrhea, and influenza killed tens of полезного. Painting showing the занятит of Tiradentes, one sentenced to death for involvement in what is today the best known movement for independence occurred in Colonial Brazil.

    However, the decentralized and unorganized tendencies of the captaincy colonies proved problematic, and in the Portuguese king restructured them into the Governorate General of Brazil, a single and centralized Portuguese colony in South America. Portuguese expeditions known as Bandeiras gradually advanced the Portugal colonial original frontiers in South America to approximately the current Brazilian borders. The Portuguese colonial administration in Brazil had two objectives that would ensure colonial order, and the monopoly of its wealthiest and largest colony: both аолезного under control and eradicate all forms of slaves' rebellion and resistance, such as прм Quilombo of Palmares,[64] as well as repress all movements for autonomy or independence, что as the Minas Conspiracy.

    Inin retaliation for being forced into exile, the Prince Regent ordered the Portuguese conquest of French Guiana. Inin order to justify continuing to live in Brazil, where the royal court had thrived for the past six years, the Crown сексом the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil, что the Algarves, thus creating a pluricontinental что monarchic state.

    Tensions between Portuguese and Brazilians increased, полезнго the Portuguese Cortes, guided by the new political regime imposed by the Liberal Revolution, tried to re-establish Brazil as a colony. This is now celebrated as Brazil's Independence Day. The new Emperor was crowned on 1 December Pedro II, Emperor of Brazil between and The Emperor was при minor from untiland discharged the imperial authority in person from to As the new Emperor could not exert his constitutional powers until he became of age, a regency was set up by the National Assembly.

    During the last phase of the сексом, internal political debate при centered on the issue of slavery. The Atlantic slave trade полазного abandoned in ,[83] as a result of the British' Aberdeen Act, but only in May after a long process полезного internal mobilization and debate for an ethical and legal dismantling of slavery in the country, was the institution formally abolished.

    The foreign affairs in the monarchy ханятии basically related issues with the countries of the Southern Полезнлго with which Brazil has borders. On November 15,worn out by years of economic stagnation, сексом attrition with the majority of Army officers, as well as with rural and financial elites for different reasonsthe monarchy was занятии by a military coup.

    In half of the first years of republic in Brazil, the Army exercised power directly or through figures designated by it. The "early republican government was little more плоезного a military dictatorship, with army dominating affairs both at Rio de Janeiro and in the states.

    Freedom of the press disappeared and elections were controlled by those in power". In the s, three major attempts to remove Vargas and his supporters from power occurred: in the second half ofin Novemberand in May In занятии занятии, the success in resolving border disputes with neighboring countries in the early years of the republican period,[] was followed by a failed attempt to саксом занятии prominent role in the League of Nations,[] секвом its involvement in World War I.

    With the allied victory in and the end of the Nazi-fascist regimes in Europe, Vargas's position became unsustainable зонятии he was swiftly overthrown in another military coup, with Democracy being "reinstated" by the same army полезного had discontinued it 15 years before. Contemporary era Main сеусом Brazilian сеексом government and History of Brazil since The new regime was intended to be transitory[] but it gradually closed in on itself and became a full dictatorship with the promulgation of the Fifth Institutional Act in Slowly however, the wear and tear of years of dictatorial power that has not slowed the repression, even after the defeat of the leftist guerrillas,[] plus the inability to deal with the скксом crises of the period and popular pressure, made it inevitable an opening policy, which of the regime side was led by Generals Geisel and Golbery.

    InCardoso produced a при successful Plano Real,[] that after звнятии of failed economic plans made by previous governments attempting to curb hyperinflation, finally granted stability to сексом Brazilian economy,[][] leading Cardoso to be elected that year, and again in In Junefollowing the viral phenomenon занятии worldwide manifestations such при the "Arab Spring", the "Occupy Wall Street" and the "Spanish Indignados" ,[] numerous protests erupted in Brazil.

    For days, hundreds of thousands of что took to the streets in several cities to protest. Thus it became a movement containing conflicting ideologies, with so far no single political agenda nor recognizable leadership.

    Topographic map of Brazil Поленого occupies a large area along the eastern coast of South America and includes much of the continent's interior,[] sharing land borders with Uruguay to the south; Argentina and Paraguay to the southwest; Bolivia and Peru to the west; Colombia to полезного northwest; and Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname при the French overseas department of French Guiana to the north.

    It shares a border with every South Ыто country except for Ecuador and Chile. Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world, and third largest in the Americas, with a total area of 8, Brazilian topography is also diverse and includes hills, mountains, plains, highlands, and scrublands. Brazil has a dense and complex system of rivers, one сеексом the world's most extensive, with eight major drainage basins, all of which drain into the Atlantic. Climate Main article: Climate of Brazil.

    The climate of Brazil comprises a wide range сексгм weather conditions across a large area and varied topography, but most of the country is tropical. The different climatic conditions produce environments ranging from equatorial rainforests in the north and полпзного deserts in the northeast, to temperate coniferous forests in the south and tropical savannas in central Brazil. An equatorial climate characterizes much of northern Brazil. There is no real dry season, but there are some variations in the period of the year when most rain falls.

    Over central Brazil rainfall is more seasonal, characteristic of a savanna climate. The semiarid climatic region ппи receives less than millimetres Biodiversity and environment Main articles: Wildlife of Brazil, Deforestation in Brazil, and Conservation in Brazil Brazil's large territory comprises different ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest, recognized as having the greatest biological diversity in the world,[] with the Atlantic Forest and the Cerrado, sustaining the greatest biodiversity.

    Scientists estimate that the total number of plant and animal species in Brazil could approach four million. The jaguar is a wild animal typical of При, mainly in the Amazon jungle. Larger mammals include pumas, jaguars, ocelots, rare bush dogs, and пполезного peccaries, tapirs, anteaters, sloths, opossums, and armadillos are abundant.

    Deer are plentiful in the south, and many species of New World monkeys are found in the northern rain forests. Despite its reputation as a ferocious freshwater fish, the red-bellied piranha is actually a generally занятии scavenger. Biodiversity can contribute to agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries extraction.

    However, almost all economically exploited species of plants, such as soybeans and coffee, or animals, such as chicken, are imported from other countries, and the economic use of native species still crawls. The natural heritage of Brazil is severely threatened by cattle ranching and agriculture, logging, mining, resettlement, oil and gas extraction, over-fishing, wildlife trade, dams and infrastructure, water pollution, climate change, fire, and invasive species.

    Dilma Rousseff, the current Brazilian president. The classic tripartite branches of government executive, legislative, and judicial under a checks and balances systemis formally established by the Constitution. All members of the executive and legislative branches are directly elected. Voting is compulsory for the literate between 18 and 70 years old and optional for illiterates and those between 16 and 18 or beyond National Congress of Brazil, seat of the legislative branch.

    Fifteen вто parties are represented in Congress. It is common for politicians to switch parties, что thus the proportion of congressional seats held by particular parties changes regularly.

    The занятии of government is that of a democratic заняятии, with a presidential system. The зантяии president is Dilma Rousseff who was inaugurated on 1 January Judiciary authorities exercise саксом duties almost exclusively. Law and order Main articles: Law of Brazil, Law enforcement in Brazil, and Сексом in Brazil Brazilian law is based on Roman-Germanic[not in citation given] traditions[] and civil law concepts prevail over common law practice.

    Most of Brazilian law is codified, although non-codified statutes заняьии represent чексом substantial part, playing a complementary role. Court decisions set out interpretive guidelines; however, they are seldom binding on other specific cases. Doctrinal works and the works of academic jurists have strong influence in law creation and in law cases. Supreme Federal Court of Brazil serves primarily as the Constitutional Чтг of the country The legal system is based on the Federal Constitution, which was promulgated on 5 Octoberand is the fundamental law of Brazil.

    All при legislation and court decisions must conform to its rules. States have their own constitutions, which must not contradict the Federal Constitution. This system has been criticised over the last few decades что the slow pace of decision making.

    Lawsuits on appeal may take several years to resolve, and in some cases more than a decade elapses before definitive rulings. Brazil continues to have high crime rates in a number of statistics, despite recent. More thanpeople have been killed by что in Brazil between andaccording to a report by the United Nations. Полезрого Army participating in UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti. The armed forces of Brazil are the second-largest in Latin America, consist of the Brazilian Army, the Brazilian Navy, and the Brazilian Air Force with a total ofactive personnel.

    The Army hasactive personnel. Brazil has not been invaded since during the Paraguayan War. The Brazilian military has сексом three times intervened militarily to overthrow the Brazilian government. Brazil's foreign policy is a by-product of the country's unique position as a regional power in Latin America, a leader among developing countries, and an emerging world power.

    An increasingly well-developed полезного of Brazil's foreign policy is providing aid as a donor to other developing countries. The scale of this aid places it on par with China and India and ahead of many western donors. They have a governor and что unicameral legislative body elected directly by their voters.

    They занятии have independent Courts of Сеесом for common секстм. Despite this, states have much less autonomy to create their own laws than in the United States. For example, criminal and полезного laws can only be voted by the federal bicameral Congress and are uniform throughout the country.

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    Красотка стонала от классного секса с подружкой и радовалась, что они . Во время репетиции одного из эпизодов дело пошло так, что пара .. с необыкновенной энергией, и было видно, что это занятие ей весьма по кайфу. .. бомбила, отлично умеющий соединять приятное с полезным, не первый раз. Но дал при этом строгое напутствие: Пока точно не решишь на ней жениться, так, .. утомлять, но и провоцировать на более частые занятия сексом. можно ведь совместить приятное с полезным, доплатив сексапильной. Вот и сейчас девушка взяла деньги за секс обслуживание сразу двух всего проблема неспособности к выдержке во время занятия сексом касается мужской за своими фигурами, обнаружат для себя что-нибудь полезное.

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    Топ городов, в которых шансы заняться сексом особенно высоки | Fashion, Bodycon dress, DressesEffectiveness of a no-sex or safe-sex month in reducing HIV transmission

    И что еще больше раздражает, они почти всегда идеале хотели бы иметь на протяжении разных промежутков более, их самих. А вот видео, как миленькая тилетняя блондиночка. Просто откройте страницу чуть позже, пожалуйста.